Wednesday, January 04, 2006

One Week Hiatas

HAPPY NEW YEAR! Indeed, it has been a few days for me, but I've made it back for one last post before I hop a plane to Atlanta for a nice vacation from the dreariness of Southeastern Wisconsin. In fact, I don't believe I've seen the sun all year! Well now that I've gotten my lame attempt at humor out of the way, on to business ...

I will be taking a break from blogging, unless the urge is too much and I'm forced to write a quick post from my aunt and uncle's house in Georgia. Nevertheless, I will hopefully get out everything that needs to be said in this post, but who knows if something super important comes up while I'm gone that just needs to be discussed.

The subject tonight is taken from a Bloomberg report that says a top economic forecaster from UNC-Chapel Hill is predicting a recession in 2006, a view that is at odds with his colleagues. Bloomberg conducts a survey of 66 economists every January for annual predictions and while the median forecast has '06 growth at 3.4%, James F. Smith is predicting GDP losses over at least two quarters (constituting a recession) this year.

As the only negative news out from an expert in the economic field, expect the MSM to pick up on this tidbit and plop it on Page 1. The Seattle Times has already copied this story and put it out, representing the first major newspaper to publish the story. I think it's safe to assume the big wigs at NYT and the Washington Post are crafting their own versions of the story for tomorrow morning's run.

It's never a surprise, nor is it difficult to predict, when leftist media outlets will run with a story simply to paint a negative picture of a Republican administration during an economic boom. To tell the truth, they need something big and they need it now. President Bush's approval ratings have jumped from a career-low of 35% in a CBS News poll at the end of October and in the heat of the Libby indictment to an average of 46% and a high of 50% over the past few weeks.

All polling aside (can we ever take a 1,000 person poll to be the nation's true feeling?), I have said it before and I'll continue to say it as long as there are still naysayers in high places; the economy is running smoothly and will continue to do so as long as Congress doesn't back off of the tax-rate cut extensions and stays away from any kind of protectionism. Economic growth, as well as productivity growth, are at rates nearing five-year highs. The economy since the tax-rate cuts were passed in 2003 has grown at an average of 4.1%, which is one of the best 30-month periods in the past century.

The main thing to remember is to never take anything the MSM has to say very seriously. For clarity's sake, never take their ANALYSIS very seriously. If they say something happened, there's a pretty good chance they didn't make it up. But when they say why it happened or what will result from it's occurance, let the warning flags go up!

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